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The optimistic view of the expected defaults is that there credit checking has improved. I’ve always been cautious with P2P the potential to make high defaults due to relatively small issues in credit checking. P2P generally utilizes only gentle credit assessments preceding to loan approval. Due to relatively low market share of the P2P company of most loans, an error missing a negative credit marker identified by the other lenders could become catastrophic. Even if this marker only put on significantly less than 1% of potential debtors, this might become a very large number of applicants in accordance with the loans 1 P2P provider is originating.

This would lead to giving sub-market quotes to these applicants (ie their quotes do not adequately charge for the credit risk identified by that marker). These would then be accepted by a high proportion of the candidates concerned that could be a high percentage of the loans decided by that P2P.

Hence their entire loan book would underestimate the credit risk. Such errors will show up in default rates. I do not know whether comparison sites currently allow automated personalized loan quotes to be obtained from soft checking providers, but if they don’t really now I expect they’ll soon! As I’ve posted elsewhere, LW has increased the efforts to the Fund considerably. Whether sufficiently is of course a matter of judgment.

Personally I stopped financing on RS at one point when lesser excessive default issues arose. As it transpired, they appear to have weathered that particular bad debts tranche. Is this low risk? Not Definitely. 1 result is insignificant data from which to evaluate the future statistically. THEREFORE I hold my nose and dive in but ensure that I don’t invest critical funds in P2P.

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